Step 3: Forecasting Income, Expenses and Profits

Business Startup
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This post is a bit longer, but not too complicated.  I hope you will read it an understand it before starting a new business…

 

In order to determine how to structure the business, it is valuable to estimate how large this company you are creating is going to be.  Here are a few questions that you need to answer for the first year.  I like to do all my forecasting on a monthly basis since many bills seem to be paid monthly:

 

·       How much income are you expecting to bring in? 

·       How much are your fixed monthly expenses? (before you sell a thing)

·       How much does it cost to make the product or service?

·       What are your other costs with each sale? ESPECIALLY THE COSTS TO GET A CUSTOMER…

·       Are you going to need employees?

·       Are you going to need outside investment to run the business?

 

Next, you can create a very basic spreadsheet or notebook page.  Start at the top and list a few items that you will change to see the impact…

 

INCOME

Average sale ($):

Expected # sales per month:

MONTHLY INCOME (sales):  (calculated by multiplying the two numbers above)

 

Example:  Let’s say your average sale is $212 (include what you charge for shipping in this number for now) and you expect to make 1 sale a day in the beginning, that would be about 25 sales a month and your monthly income would be $5,300.   The top of the chart or spreadsheet looks like this.  With a spreadsheet you can change these estimates and see the impact… 

 

INCOME

Average sale:   $212

Expected # sales per month: 25

MONTHLY INCOME (sales):  $5,300

 

Now we need to estimate how much it costs to generate that $5,300 in sales income.  The EXPENSES… Add a few more lines to your spreadsheet…

 

EXPENSES

 Fixed monthly costs ($):

 Variable Cost per month ($):  (expected # of sales per month x total var cost below)             

      Fulfillment cost per sale:

   Marketing cost per sale:

  Total Variable cost per sale: (sum of two above)

 MONTHLY EXPENSES ($):

 

First the Fixed monthly costs… 

 

Lets say this is a home-based business and you already have a computer (later you can sell this to the business) and you need only a phone, a website, and a PO box and your fixed monthly costs are $150 a month. Of course, this is a bare bones business and we are assuming no employees etc…In cases where you are running advertisements in regular places where the cost is fixed then you need to include these in your fixed costs… in our example…

 

Fixed Monthly costs:  $150

 

Now for the costs per sale, these are also called Variable costs because they go up with every sale you make.  Let’s first look at the fulfillment costs since they are easiest to estimate…

·       Costs to produce the good or service.  Let’s say it is an Information product and it costs you $25 to make the CDs, videos and to print the material and put it all in a binder

·       Costs to ship the product to the customer (let’s say its $7)

·       Credit card transaction fees (if applicable.. for our example, $6)

 

You are just trying to get an reasonable idea of the numbers here.  In our example fulfillment costs are $38…

 

You need to figure out what the cost is for you to get a new customer.  One way is to pay an affiliate or sales commission to someone else to make the sale, another way is to market and send out postcards or letters, or to buy traffic on Google adwords. 

Marketing Costs are Often Underestimated…

 

This number is really the number that is the most misunderstood and underestimated by most starting business people.  If you don’t have any idea what this will cost, you need to at least understand that this is the factor that will determine your success more than any other thing.  If you have something that is easy to sell, and it is easy to reach lots of customers you are going to have lower marketing costs than if it is a tough sale and the people are harder to reach.   The higher your price point and the more you make on every sale, the more you can afford to spend to get a new customer.

 

Just for our example, lets assume that we can either get a new customer ourself using a variety of techniques or we can pay an affiliate $60 to get a single sale for the $212 product.  Now our simple spreadsheet is looking more complete:


Fixed Monthly costs:  $150

Variable Cost per month ($):  $2,450  (this is the $98 below times 25 sales above per month)

     Fulfillment cost per sale:  $38

                  Marketing cost per sale: $60

  Total Variable cost per sale: $98  (sum of two above)

MONTHLY EXPENSES ($):  $2,600

 

Now we add a last line…NET INCOME per month ($)   

 

This is the MONTHLY INCOME -  MONTHLY EXPENSES, what’s left over for you the business owner before you’ve paid any taxes.  So here is our complete simple example spreadsheet…

 

INCOME

Average sale:   $212

Expected # sales per month: 25

MONTHLY INCOME (sales):  $5,300

 

EXPENSES

Fixed Monthly costs:  $150

Variable Cost per month ($):  $2,450  (this is the $98 below times 25 sales above per month)

     Fulfillment per sale:  $38

     Marketing per sale: $60

          Total Variable cost per sale: $98  (sum of two above)

MONTHLY EXPENSES ($):  $2,600

 

PROFIT per month ($):  $2,700

PROFIT per year ($): $32,400   (Before any taxes)

Now, if you’ve set the spreadsheet up right, you can play around with the numbers.  Try changing the number of sales per month.  Try changing the selling price.  Use this as the very simple basis for building a real model of your business… it will become much more complex as you add to it, but it will also become a valuable tool…

(If you don’t know anything about using Excel, you should learn this program.  In my opinion, the spreadsheet is one of the most impactful inventions of the 20th Century pertaining to business.  Every business owner needs this tool…)

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24 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Philip GravesNo Gravatar (52 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @10:01 am

    You seem to over-looked the cost of hiring a consumer behaviour expert ;-)

    Excellent breakdown. I couldn’t agree more about the power of spreadsheets too.

    Consumer Behavior Consultant

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    LOL, that is step eight! Thanks for the comment, spreadsheets rock!
    Rob

    Reply

  2. Steve ChambersNo Gravatar (103 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @10:41 am

    What an excellent post! Most small business people rely more on hope than mathematics, even though this is simple math. Solid financial forecasting is the key to business success.

    Imagine how much fun this was before Spreadsheets.

    Steve
    Sales and Leadership Consultant

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    Hope is not a strategy, just like change is not a destination…
    Rob

    Reply

  3. Lisa McLellanNo Gravatar (90 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @11:14 am

    This is a great post. I have a friend who makes jewelry and gift items. She wanted to open a store because her house was getting overloaded with the stuff. So she just opened it. Luckily, things have been going great so far. She has no lease, so if it starts to tank she’s not paying rent for a year. Also, she got displays, a counter and even a cash register for free. Things are going well so far, but I think she needs to read your blog.
    Babysitter Tips

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    Hi Lisa aka BHM,

    Keeping the overhead low and the length of commitments low is a smart move in the beginning, so is keeping a low inventory, and creating on demand… Your friend sounds like she’s doing good. Tell her to email me if she has any particular questions and I’ll try to help. That goes for anyone reading this blog.

    email is rob@corporatebasecamp.com

    Rob

    Reply

  4. Matthew ShieldsNo Gravatar (36 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @12:20 pm

    Hi , Rob
    Great post for explaining how to break the cost down. So many do not truly understand all of the full extent of the costs associated with their business. Thank you for the detailed post
    Happy Trails
    Matthew Shields
    Hotel Resort Energy Management
    Anything Solar

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    Accurate Thinking is the word Napoleon Hill used to describe this sort of no-nonsense analysis. You can’t improve what you can’t measure.

    Thanks for reading and commenting,

    Rob

    Reply

  5. Jennifer SkinnerNo Gravatar (42 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @12:48 pm

    This series of posts you are doing is so exceptionally helpful. The math isn’t complicated, but the figuring is so often neglected. Thank you!
    Jennifer Skinner
    Wardrobe Planning Expert

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    Jenn,
    Glad you are getting value from them…
    Rob

    Reply

  6. Robert KauferNo Gravatar (24 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @1:31 pm

    Rob,

    Pretty simple math, can you send this to the president.

    Bob K
    Learn How to Be A Do It Yourself Lawyer

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    A nation of moochers is what we are becoming…
    Rob

    Reply

  7. LenaNo Gravatar (39 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @3:47 pm

    Hi Rob
    I have Kevin’s ebooks printed out…and now I’m printing out your some of your posts as well
    milukh.com
    body language blog

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    Lena, Glad to hear that you are getting value, let me know if you have any questions…
    This is intended to help people who aren’t used to this sort of thing…
    Rob

    Reply

  8. Intuitive JohnNo Gravatar (31 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @6:53 pm

    Practical…easy to follow business advice. I found my stress going down as I read the post…and was mentally filling in the numbers.

    You could teach a class on this.

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    John,

    I am teaching a class, it just happens to be in blog form… :)

    Rob

    Reply

  9. Michael RothNo Gravatar (24 comments)  •  Oct 24, 2008 @11:16 pm

    Rob,great detailed post. Very helpful. thanks,Michael http://www.drmichaelroth.com

    Reply

  10. Scott A BellNo Gravatar (27 comments)  •  Oct 25, 2008 @6:12 am

    thanks for the great information Rob.

    Scott Bell

    The Road Warrior

    http://www.scottalexanderbell.com

    Reply

  11. David J. ParnellNo Gravatar (38 comments)  •  Oct 25, 2008 @10:56 am

    Rob,

    Go and thorough communication of very valuable information. These are things that most small businesses don’t even consider before start up…

    David J. Parnell | Communication Expert
    The Effective Communication Blog

    Reply

  12. SheridanNo Gravatar (4 comments)  •  Oct 25, 2008 @2:19 pm

    Not only do people often underestimate $,assuming they’re even estimating at all, they underestimate the amount of sweat equity required. And they often throw good dollars after bad into the marketing abyss.

    Reply

  13. Cindy EyansonNo Gravatar (36 comments)  •  Oct 26, 2008 @3:59 am

    Great post! Tons of data! Loved it and learned alot
    Cindy

    Cindy Eyanson Online

    Reply

  14. April BraswellNo Gravatar (73 comments)  •  Oct 28, 2008 @3:17 pm

    GREAT information, Rob. and BTW, I LOVE excel. have an acctg/fin analyst background. used to practically program within it. I LOVE doing that because you can set up your assumption and whatIF scenarios and just plug in some numbers to do reality checks.

    and it is GREAT for making decisions, even romantic partner decisions. One can CARE FOR another (affection) and yet then figure out (at least generally if not super precisely) that this person, while a lovely human being, is not a GOOD LIFE PARTNER choice.

    Even the soft stuff can be approximately quantified.

    All the best,

    April Braswell

    Online Dating Expert, Romantic Relationship Coach, Romance Coaching

    Online Dating Sites Review, Internet Dating Sites Guide

    Reply

  15. SamNo Gravatar (1 comments)  •  Nov 4, 2008 @3:15 am

    Very true that marketing budgets are often underestimated and overlooked. I have found this with many clients that I have worked with when I had a design business a few years back. What do you think the reason for companies overlooking this marketing budget would be Rob?

    Sam from Residual Income Business Opportunity Blog.

    Reply

    Rob NorthrupNo Gravatar (84 comments) Reply:

    Sam,
    Good question. I think the reason that Marketing Expenses are underestimated is because most people who aren’t already in businesss assume that the customers will find them if they just have a great product. “The Better Mousetrap Theory”. Build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door.

    This is wrong, and even those with a real Better Mousetrap need to 1) tell people about said Mousetrap. and 2) convince them that it is really better and 3) get them to take action and buy said Better Mousetrap. All these things take money.

    Hope you keep reading.
    Rob

    Reply

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